Monday, January 7, 2008

The Entertainment Development & Programming Weekly - January 6th Edition

Happy New Year! The EDP Weekly returns after a much needed rest. Hopefully everyone enjoyed their holiday and New Year celebrations.


Here are the most interesting articles that came across this week…


Is Facebook The Next Big Game Console?

The social experience has been an important aspect of videogames, but for much of the history of this young medium, these social experiences have been isolated islands of play, whether taking place on a single couch or within a single game. That changed when Microsoft launched its Xbox Live online service in 2002 (Sony and Nintendo have since followed suit), creating an overarching social experience centered on gaming—as long as all parties own the same console and the same game. But with Facebook, these distinctions disappear. You're on a Mac and I'm on a PC? No problem—we just both need an Internet connection and a Web browser. When I send you an invitation to play, you'll be asked to download the required app if you don't already have it. I've already got more "friends" there (382) than on Xbox Live (31). That's because Xbox Live and its rivals are gaming networks first, predicated on users playing against either good friends or complete strangers. Social networks, by contrast, are often at their most interesting when they operate as a social lubricant among people who are only casually acquainted. I've played Rock Paper Scissors and Scrabulous with acquaintances and friends alike, and it doesn't require a $279 console. Even better, games on Facebook are generally asynchronous: you play your turn when it's convenient for you, and I play mine when it's convenient for me.

http://www.news.com/Widgets-are-the-new-ad-kid-on-the-block/2100-1024_3-6223229.html?part=rss&tag=2547-1_3-0-5&subj=news


Will Innovation Define 2008?

There’s something about 2008 that makes the feeling of change seem more real than before the calendar flipped a few days ago. Could be tonight’s Iowa Caucus formally begins the process of electing a new US president. Business Week recently wrote 15 predictions about how idea of innovation might force change and impact the next twelve months.

Building the next-generation enterprise—and maybe even the next-generation nation—will preoccupy most of us in 2008. The demand for innovation is soaring in the business community and is just beginning to gain traction in the political sphere.

Bruce Temkin from Customer Experience Matters posted a thoughtful followup piece and offers comments on 7 he found important.

http://www.psfk.com/2008/01/will-innovation-define-2008.html


David Byrne's Survival Strategies for Emerging Artists — and Megastars

But some labels will disappear, as the roles they used to play get chopped up and delivered by more thrifty services. In a recent conversation I had with Brian Eno (who is producing the next Coldplay album and writing with U2), he was enthusiastic about I Think Music — an online network of indie bands, fans, and stores — and pessimistic about the future of traditional labels. "Structurally, they're much too large," Eno said. "And they're entirely on the defensive now. The only idea they have is that they can give you a big advance — which is still attractive to a lot of young bands just starting out. But that's all they represent now: capital."

So where do artists fit into this changing landscape? We find new options, new models.

The six possibilities

Where there was one, now there are six: Six possible music distribution models, ranging from one in which the artist is pretty much hands-off to one where the artist does nearly everything. Not surprisingly, the more involved the artist is, the more he or she can often make per unit sold. The totally DIY model is certainly not for everyone — but that's the point. Now there's choice.

http://www.wired.com/entertainment/music/magazine/16-01/ff_byrne?currentPage=all


In defense of Facebook

Too often, companies and brands — especially media brands, I’ll add — try to act as if they’re perfect and they don’t make mistakes and they don’t want to risk their reputations by making any. This makes them timid and that kills innovation.

I’d rather have a company that tries to innovate and makes mistakes, so long as they listen and correct them. That, I believe, is the new way for companies to act. It works only if you are in a conversation with your customers and listen to them. And so far, Facebook has done that. So I agree with Segal. And I say, don’t be so quick to jump on or write off Zuckerberg and company. They’ve done a lot right so far. Could they make the Big Mistake that messes it all up? Sure. That’s what Plaxo did with me, spamming me to the point that I will never trust that brand or company again.

http://www.buzzmachine.com/2008/01/03/in-defense-of-facebook/


Google is God

For something I’m working on, I compiled a bunch of stats on Google (sorry, I didn’t intend to blog it and so I didn’t capture all the links, but I found the collection so compelling I thought I’d share it):

  • Google is the “fastest growing company in the history of the world.” – Times of London, 1/29/06
  • Google controls 65.1% of all searches in the U.S. at the end of 2007 and 86% of all searches in the UK, according to measurement company Hitwise.
  • Google was searched 4.4 billion times in the U.S. alone in October, 2007 (three times Yahoo), says Nielsen. Average searches per searcher: 40.7.
  • Google’s sites had 112 million U.S. visitors in November, 2007, says Nielsen.
  • Google’s traffic was up 22.4% in 2007 over 2006, according to Comscore.

http://www.buzzmachine.com/2007/12/29/google-is-god/


TV Media Planning Evolves. Slowly

From the If the Journal Says It, It Must Be True department: media planners aren't wonky anymore; they're rising stars! And behavioral analysis is more important than demographics!

These are some of the key takeaways from an interesting profile of Interpublic/Initiative's Janice Finkel-Greene, under the headline "Looking at Data Through a DVR." But if media buying actually took into account current DVR behavior, wouldn't TV ad spending be down? (See Figure 7.) It's not. It'll probably take a new generation of media planners, raised on Internet measurement techniques, to really re-distribute the ad spending wealth. And TV will be the best mass medium for emotional, story-telling messages, probably forever.

Jupiter's latest DVR forecast and some behavioral data here.

http://weblogs.jupiterresearch.com/analysts/card/archives/2008/01/tv_media_planni.html


Why a Cable-TV Network Is Hiring the Ink-Stained

The brand ESPN created was a fun, irreverent locker room, driven by the highlights and hijinks of "SportsCenter," which it aired several times a day, updating all the while. But as video begins to explode on the Internet, the highlight formula is showing signs of plateauing: Sports fans can go elsewhere to catch up on the day's games -- and especially to indulge their local-team loyalties. TV ratings have flattened out, and Internet upstarts are luring away young sports fans who grew up with ESPN as part of the sports establishment. Meanwhile, the high rates ESPN has commanded with cable operators for their channels -- the highest in TV -- can't sustain their earlier rate of growth.

So to remain the self-proclaimed "Worldwide Leader in Sports," the network is bulking up on content that is harder to duplicate. Rather than just introducing game video, the idea is to serve up breaking news and expert analysis, aggressively blanketing TV, the Internet, the magazine and even cellphones. In the new Internet-fed landscape, a two-minute video can be just as important. And the ESPN brand isn't enough -- it needs individual go-to names like Mr. Reilly, or ESPN's existing Web star, "Sports Guy" columnist Bill Simmons.

"As more money moves towards the Internet, you're going to have to have talent," says John Skipper, ESPN's executive vice president for content. "The talent is going to have to come from traditional media." Someone like Mr. Reilly, he says, is worth a lot in such an environment. "Content is increasingly valuable, particularly differentiating content. There just are not that many guys who can provide that."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119820369820344043.html?mod=todays_us_marketplace


WGA releases details on Letterman pact

The Writers Guild of America tonight released the terms of deal it recently struck with David Letterman's production company, Worldwide Pants Inc. The interim agreement allowed "Late Show With David Letterman" and its sister program "The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson" to return to the air with their writing staffs this week. Worldwide Pants is the first company to negotiate a contract with the guild in the two-month-old writers strike. The guild said Worldwide Pants accepted terms it was prepared to present to the studios before that alliance broke off talks in December, including key proposals for Internet residuals.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/showtracker/2008/01/the-writers-gui.html


NewTeeVee Online Video Predictions for 2008

Our twelve days of Christmas at NewTeeVee came courtesy of four online video creators, two esteemed academics, one venture capitalist, a big media technology decision maker, a video advertising developer, and an online video talent agent. Who needs a partridge in a pear tree when you’ve got luminaries to prognosticate about the future of your industry?

Here are the specs on our panelists, and the ten prediction topics we posted over the holidays. In each case we asked the ten panelists the same question, e.g. “Will online video make it into the living room in 2008?” and posted a selection of their responses. I’d definitely recommend clicking through to see the interesting reader comments.

http://newteevee.com/2008/01/02/newteevee-online-video-predictions-for-2008/#more-2904


MTVN Serves 1.2 Billion Streams in ‘07

Who says MTV doesn’t play music videos any more? It just plays them online. To be more specific, MTV.com, VH1.com and CMT.com served up 1.2 billion streams in 2007. Music videos raked in half of those company record-breaking plays.

A good chunk of that traffic was driven by the morbidly-curious taking in Britney’s disastrous performance at the VMAs, but other women who weren’t lip-syncing badly and forgetting their choreography dominated the top ten music videos across the networks.

http://newteevee.com/2007/12/27/mtvn-serves-12-billion-streams-in-07/


Advertising "Strike Tax" is the Solution to Writers/Producers Impasse

This strike already has only losers. What's finally beginning to be realized is the real losers are the advertisers who underwrite the network television business because they need it for their own business well-being. Ultimately, they stand to be the biggest long term losers. Their history suggests they will stay neutral and stay above the battle. That would be a mistake. Advertisers need to get involved. They need to get involved now. They need to determine if the Strike Tax or an alternative is a viable solution to bring the AMPTP and the WGA back into a new three way conversation. They need to take fiduciary responsibility for the nearly $40 billion they invest annually in the broadcast and cable network television industry.

http://www.jackmyers.com/commentary/media-business-report/12713087.html


8 Reasons Why The TV Studios Will Die

While no doubt it is possible to make it through on top, pretty much ALL of the qualities that the major networks are good at are no longer needed. We don’t need them to identify talent for us. The promotion and distribution channels are now open and cheap or free for the clever. We can have share in the rights to our own work without them. The list goes on and on. The networks have shown a poor record in all of the qualities that will be needed to rise up as the new industry leaders.

TV is still an incredibly powerful medium. TV makes much bigger stars and commands much bigger audiences and way more money than anything online, moving image-wise. But obviously that is changing drastically at a rapid pace that is suddenly very surprising to even me, as brought on by the very important impact of the writers strike. The strike really is the astroid from outer space that is covering the planet with dust night now.

There is plenty more to say which I will leave for another day, lets jump right into the top 8 indications that the traditional TV industry is not well prepared for the upcoming change in business around a new media industry.

http://dembot.com/post/22117963


Will Microsoft’s TV Efforts Finally Pay Off in 2008?

CNET reports that Microsoft is streamlining its video operations, putting Internet Protocol television, Media Center, and HD DVD groups into one single group, Connected TV group. The new group now falls under Robbie Bach’s Entertainment and Devices division. Enrique Rodriguez, the VP who till recently was running Microsoft IPTV, is now in charge of Connected TV Group, while Peter Barrett, former CTO of the IPTV group is now CTO of Connected TV group.

The idea behind the reorganization, according to News.com, is that since Microsoft is trying to put video on a variety of devices – Zune and Xbox in particular – it makes sense for a single consolidated effort.

On the IPTV front, Microsoft is moving ahead with its effort to allow additional programs to run on set-top boxes using its software. Microsoft said it now has more than two dozen companies working on software for its Mediaroom platform, including ES3 and Emuse Technologies.

http://newteevee.com/2007/12/23/will-microsoft-tv-efforts-finally-pay-off-in-2008/


Web Playgrounds of the Very Young

“Get ready for total inundation,” said Debra Aho Williamson, an analyst at the research firm eMarketer, who estimates that 20 million children will be members of a virtual world by 2011, up from 8.2 million today.

Worlds like Webkinz, where children care for stuffed animals that come to life, have become some of the Web’s fastest-growing businesses. More than six million unique visitors logged on to Webkinz in November, up 342 percent from November 2006, according to ComScore Media Metrix, a research firm.

Club Penguin, where members pay $5.95 a month to dress and groom penguin characters and play games with them, attracts seven times more traffic than Second Life. In one sign of the times, Electric Sheep, a software developer that helps companies market their brands in virtual worlds like Second Life and There.com, last week laid off 22 people, about a third of its staff.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/business/31virtual.html?_r=2&th&emc=th&oref=slogin&oref=slogin


Disney Channel tops in ratings race

TNT came in third behind Disney and USA in total viewers, but it was down by 7% from those of 2006 in primetime. The total viewer numbers for ESPN, in fourth place, dropped by 11% from last year's, but fifth-place TBS was up by 12% from 2006.

Below the top five, the networks that shot up by double digits year to year in total primetime viewers, in order of their over-all finish, are: A&E (up 20%), Discovery Channel (up 13%), Court TV (up 27%), TLC (up 14%), VH1 (up 19%), Bravo (up 10%) and MSNBC (up 32%).

Also, E! Entertainment TV (up 10%), Lifetime Movie Network (up 15%), CNN Headline News (up 15%), National Geographic Channel (up 20%), Oxygen (up 19%) and Toon Disney (up 17%).

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117978395.html?categoryid=14&cs=1

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